This Sunday the Cincinnati Bengals (4-0) will host the Seattle Seahawks (2-2) in what has turned out to be a highly anticipated non-conference matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST at Paul Brown Stadium and will be televised locally on FOX. Our Week 5 NFL odds show the Bengals listed as a 2.5-point home favorite with the total set at 43 points.
Close call: Seahawks hold off Dalton, Bengals for 21-20 win. Russell Wilson hit Tyler Lockett for a 44-yard touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter, and the Seattle Seahawks withstood a. The Cincinnati Bengals are at the Seattle Seahawks in week 1 NFL action with a current point spread favoring the Seahawks by 8.
Cincinnati comes into this contest off a 36-21 home win over the Chiefs as a 3.5-point favorite. Not only are the Bengals undefeated at 4-0, but they are 4-0 ATS to start the season. Seattle was able to hold on for a 13-10 win at home against the Lions on Monday Night Football, but failed to cover the spread as a 9.5-point favorite. The Seahawks have managed to climb to 2-2 after their 0-2 start, but are just 1-3 ATS.
Early Lean on Seahawks +2.5
As difficult as it may be to go against the Andy Dalton and the Bengals after their impressive start to the season, my early lean here is on the Seahawks as an underdog. While Seattle came in as a huge public team, the public isn’t going to want to back them catching less than a field goal on the road, especially after their 1-3 start against the spread. They instead will look to back the Bengals, who have covered every game to this point.
For a lot of people this line will look obvious to take the Bengals. Cincinnati has been very good at home and will be catching the Seahawks on short rest, plus Seattle has to travel east for an early start time. Throw in the uncertainty of whether star running back Marshawn Lynch will play and the books have essentially set a line here begging you to take the Bengals. When it looks this obvious, more times than not it’s for good reason.
This game will almost surely be hyped as one of the biggest games of the week and that is where I think the value comes in on the Seahawks. Big time games bring out the worst of Dalton and he going to feel the pressure to perform well in this game. I’ll take my chances that Dalton fails to deliver again in the spotlight and Seattle pulls out the win on the road.
Home teams who are averaging 370+ yards/game and coming off two straight games where they had 375 or more total yards are just 6-23 (21%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing an opponent with a strong offense that is averaging 335 to 370 yards/game.
One thing to keep in mind with the Bengals hot start, especially on the offensive side of the ball, is the Ravens are the best defense they have faced and they are a mere 13th in total defense. Despite missing one of their best players in safety Kam Chancellor for the first two games (only two games they have lost), Seattle comes in ranked 4th in total defense (278.8 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (17.8 ppg).
Defensively the Bengals are just 19th in the league in total defense (364.8 ypg), which is also concerning given their schedule. The best offense Cincinnati has faced is the Chiefs, who are 14th at 357.8 ypg. Keep in mind the Chiefs outgained the Bengals on the road last week 461 to 445, but had to settle for 7 field goals. They only forced Kansas City to punt once the entire game. If Lynch ends up playing, that’s just an added bonus here for Seattle, as I look for Russell Wilson to work his magic and get Seattle the big road win.
The Bengals are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points, while Seattle is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning road record and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. There’s also a strong system in play favoring a fade of Cincinnati. Home teams who are averaging 370+ yards/game and coming off two straight games where they had 375 or more total yards are just 6-23 (21%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing an opponent with a strong offense that is averaging 335 to 370 yards/game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 8, 2019 at 3:05 PM (CenturyLink Field)
The Line: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 -- Over/Under: 44Click to Get Latest Betting Odds
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The Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks meet Sunday in NFL action at CenturyLink Field.
Seahawks Bengals Spread
The Cincinnati Bengals have missed the playoffs each of the last three years and finally begin a new era under coach Zac Taylor. The Cincinnati Bengals have lost each of their last five road games. The Cincinnati Bengals have won four of their last five regular season openers. The Cincinnati Bengals finished last year ranked 26th in offensive yards per game and 17th in points per game. Defensively, the Bengals finished 30th in points allowed and 32nd in yards allowed. The Cincinnati Bengals are likely going to have issues offensively simply because Andy Dalton is still the quarterback and AJ Green is out for the meantime due to injury. The Bengals defense should be improved, as there’s no real excuse for a unit that has Dre Kirkpatrick, Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap to be dead last in the league in defensive yards allowed. Progress was made with the firing of Marvin Lewis, but it’s hard to get excited about the Bengals for obvious reasons.
The Seattle Seahawks have won double-digit games six of the last seven years and have made the playoffs 12 times in the last 16 years. The Seattle Seahawks have won each of their last five home games. The Seattle Seahawks have lost three of their last four regular season openers. The Seattle Seahawks finished last year ranked 18th in offensive yards per game and sixth in points per game. Defensively, the Seahawks finished 11th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed. Russell Wilson has proven what he can do when the offense is on his shoulders, but he does have improved wide receiver depth with the additions of Gary Jennings and John Ursua. Defensively, the Seahawks are going to be much better at rushing the passer after signing Ezekiel Ansah and recently trading for Jadeveon Clowney. The Seahawks are quietly coming together roster wise and and if you’re interested in a dark horse team that has at least 25 to 1 Super Bowl odds, this is a team worth looking at.
The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games in September and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Bengals are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The over is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0-2 in Bengals last 5 games overall.
The Cincinnati Bengals have covered six of their last eight games when an underdog of at least seven points. The Seattle Seahawks have split their last 12 games ATS when favored by at least seven points. I'm not the guy looking to lay big chalk, especially in season openers, but the Bengals aren't a good football team and it's even worse without Green to stretch the defense. Dalton in this stadium also scares the hell out of me. The Seattle Seahawks have a better roster than what they've had the last couple of years and have shown under Pete Carroll that they're not afraid to keep their foot on the gas. There's much better options on Sunday's card, but if forced to pick, I'd take the Seahawks in a blowout.